A Ferengi state military may or may not exist, although we can be sure that the Nagus must control some, perhaps much, of the Alliance's military force. It is difficult to say whether the daimons are government employees or private actors, or both. Education does not exist. Health care and social services are also nonexistent.
As far as we can tell, so is industry and innovation. "Investment opportunities" as mentioned are limited to crazy ponzi schemes and quasi-legal brokings of things not made by the broker.
Another thing: the monetary system of the Ferengi Alliance appears designed to impede the efficient extension of credit.
Given all this, it is impossible to say that the Ferengi system is remotely capitalist, or remotely free market. It appears nearly feudal. At best, it is like a caricature of China, but even the nominally communist government has a far greater adherence to actual capitalist principles than the corrupt, influence-ridden, purely parasitic Ferengi Alliance regime...
Sunday, July 18, 2021
The Ferengi Aren’t Capitalists
Saturday, July 10, 2021
Why Worker Ownership of the Firm Is (Usually) a Bad Idea
In the past few months I've listened to a number of "capitalism versus socialism" debates in various forums. Notably, Gene Epstein has done three debates at the Soho Forum, arguing in favor of free markets with his opponent in each case arguing for some form of socialism. See his debate with Bhaskar Sunkara here, with Richard Wolff here, and Ben Burgis here.
What's interesting is that the socialists always make some effort to distance themselves from the kind of state socialism that existed in the 20th century. It's as if they all realize there is a dark history that needs to be recognized and reckoned with. If I'm hearing them correctly, they (Sunkara, Wolff, and Burgis) all reject "state ownership of the means of production." None of them seem to be all-in on the concept of complete state control of the economy. Still, none of them shy away from the use of the state as a tool, a stick with which to beat non-compliant businesses that don't conform to their vision. Sunkara favors laws against using capital markets and wage labor. Epstein repeatedly asks him to bite the bullet on this totalitarian idea, something like, "So I'm going to jail if I go to Kickstarted to get funding for a new project?"
Wolff and Burgis both seem to be advocating for a decentralized form of worker ownership. That is (if I heard them correctly) companies are not owned by the state, but the workers within a firm collectively own it. I want to explain why this is a terrible idea.
Suppose I'm a worker for one of these worker-owned firms. I earn an income from my company. I also have a substantial wealth holding that's tied to the value of the firm. (What is "the value of the firm" under this system? Hard to say. We don't have financial markets buying and selling stock in the firm, so we probably don't have good estimates of the firm's future profits.) What happens if the firm suddenly becomes unproductive? Perhaps some key inputs to our production have skyrocketed in price. Maybe we're some kind of diamond dealership, and diamond mining has completely dried up so the raw materials are hard to come by. Or perhaps people have simply stopped buying whatever it is we produce. Maybe we're that same diamond dealership, but the diamond-buying public has caught on to the "blood diamond" problem and has made a moral decision to stop supporting the slave labor that produces them. Or maybe you're some kind of butcher shop, and plant-based meat substitutes are getting more convincing and cheaper. You can probably think of a thousand legitimate reasons why a company can go out of business, even under socialism. Under this system of worker-owned firms, you lose your income and a substantial portion of your wealth if the firm goes under. I'm sure the socialists who favor worker ownership would say something about the social safety net that's in place to catch workers who are temporarily put out of work, but it's still the case that these workers have been needlessly placed in economic peril. They could better diversify their risks if they could sell off their holdings and buy other assets (stock in other companies, real estate, bonds, whatever). My reading of Burgis is that he is insisting that every worker gets an equal share of whatever firm he works for, including voting rights and a claim on future profits. Mere wage labor, he insists, should be illegal. This is deeply misguided. If all workers suddenly found themselves holding equal ownership shares of the firm that employed them, it would be merciful to allow them to sell those shares off and diversify their portfolios. Anyone with a rational approach to financial risk would want to hold stock in other firms.
Suppose you now find yourself as this unemployed worker. The company you worked for no longer made economic sense, so it went out of business. You want to get back to work.* You knock on the door of another worker-owned firm and ask for a job.
The workers at this other firm now have to decide whether or not to hire an additional worker. In an economy of wage labor, the decision is fairly simple. Offer a wage or salary that's commensurate with the value produced. In practice, this usually means setting a pay scale for different kinds of positions. If, upon assessment, the worker seems capable of producing value for the firm that's roughly in line with the worker's pay, hire him. The worker-owned firm has a much harder decision to make. They aren't just paying this new worker a salary. They're giving him a claim to the firm's future earnings and a vote in decision-making. If there are currently X workers sharing Y value (where Y is the total value of the firm), they must now contemplate reducing their wealth from Y/X to Y/(X + 1). Clearly there is a hesitancy to hire workers, a hesitancy that doesn't exist in a free market system. I suspect that labor markets would be far less flexible under this system, and unemployment would be a worse problem. A growing business, in which it makes sense to expand operations and hire more workers, would be reluctant to do so. The loss to existing workers due to share dilution seems pretty substantial, if you take some plausible values for X and Y.**
There are conditions under which worker ownership is a good idea. Law firms are often owned by a few partners, each of whom has a residual claim to the firm's profits. But they also employ non-owners: secretaries, janitorial staff, paralegals, junior lawyers. It would make little sense for them to make everyone a partner. Clearly some of the "workers" bring in more revenue than others. The partners are better positioned to make executive decisions about the firm, because they typically know the subject matter of the business much better. Likewise, doctors are often given ownership stake in the practice or hospital they work for. (Or they have the option of buying shares, and option not offered to other employees.) It works pretty well when you have a small number of individuals making executive decisions. "Share dilution" may be offset by acquiring substantial talent or insisting on some kind of buy-in. It works less well when you have hundreds or thousands of workers with an equal vote, most of whom have no acumen for making business decisions.
I should be very clear that I'm not disparaging anyone who wants to hold a greater ownership share of the company they work for. Maybe the janitor really does want to hold voting rights and a share of the firm's future profits. Maybe he just really believes in the company. If that's where a worker wants to park their savings, that's fine. I just think that most don't want to do this, and at any rate it's a mistake to force them to do so.
So far I've been explaining why we should expect worker ownership to be a generally bad system. I want to step off of this approach and make a different kind of argument. I don't actually have to convince anyone that worker ownership of the firm is a bad idea, because the option is wide open and the marketplace has soundly rejected it. Note that "worker ownership" is a perfectly legal form of incorporation. You can start a worker's co-op wherever you like. The trick is getting others to join you. It's worth noting that almost all employment in the U.S. economy is wage and salary labor, with a small fraction of employees holding major decision-making rights and claims on the firm's profits.
There is an open glide-path from the world as it is to a world that's dominated by worker-owned firms. The path from here to there is clear of obstacles. If the workers actually wanted it, that's the direction we would move. I've seen Ben Burgis and Richard Wolff both make lame attempts to dodge this point. In their Soho Forum debate, Gene Epstein repeatedly pointed out to Burgis that workers could start their own firms if they wanted to. David Friedman also debated Wolff and Burgis, and he made this same point on both occasions. Their denials are weak. Both say something about how financial markets won't back worker co-ops, insurers don't know how to insure them, and so on. I call this a lame dodge because capital markets are backing new products and new ways of doing things all the time. Suppose workers co-ops are more efficient for some reason. (Socialists often claim their system is more economically efficient, not just that it's morally superior.) Maybe they save hugely by cutting out the dead-weight in upper- and middle-management. Or maybe they are intrinsically better at making decisions, being democratic in nature. If there are excess profits to be had, then there should be no problem at all finding start-up capital.
We can even indulge some paranoid theories of grand conspiracies against co-ops, and it still appears that the path is wide open. Suppose the capitalist class acts as a unified interest group. They successfully conspire to withhold capital from worker co-ops, which would threaten their interests. (Is this the actual charge? That capitalists are all working in concert?) This still doesn't matter. Workers could easily save their earnings for a few years and set up their co-ops without help from wealthy capitalists. Contra popular conceptions of "inequality", the purchasing power of the lower and middle classes is vast. Collectively they can easily outbid "the rich". Supposing they forego consumption to build up their savings, they could easily start buying up capital and setting up workers co-ops.*** Wolff and Burgis are somehow blind to this possibility. In fact I'd say they've willfully blinded themselves to it, as people keep pointing it out to them (notably Gene Epstein and David Friedman). I want to pull them aside and say, "C'mon guys. There isn't one eccentric billionaire who's willing to bankroll this idea? Is it really so hard for a handful of workers with significant savings to purchase some capital and start a business together?" After all, there was the guy who paid all his employees $70,000/year (including himself). There was also the case of Chobani giving shares to its employees.**** There is some propensity to implement socialist egalitarianism in the marketplace. It already has a foothold, a sort of beach head. It just doesn't manage to take off, because it's (usually) a bad idea.
It's worth pointing out that it has never been easier for workers to themselves become capitalists. If you can save up $1,000, you can open a Vanguard account. That is, you can easily purchase shares in companies and acquire a claim to their future profits. If you own shares of the stock itself, you can exercise voting rights. People like Burgis and Wolff might contend that workers are so thoroughly under the boot that they can't afford to save up even the meager amount required to open an index fund account. Actually, this is exactly wrong. If capitalists are really earning such a huge excess by exploiting labor, then the workers can't afford not to become capitalists. I managed to grow my savings when I was a minimum wage worker, when I earned ~$20k/year as a grad student, and when I began my professional career at around ~$50k/year. And I did a lot of stupid spending on things like alcohol and trips to the mall. There was plenty of room for me to save even more. I presume a lot of workers are in a similar situation. They just fail to realize what options they have available to them, or they decline to exert any discipline in their spending and saving decisions. (Would critics of capitalism counter this point by claiming that the truly excessive profits aren't "democratized" by the open stock market? Are privately held companies raking in much larger returns, and the common investor lacks the connections to buy into these firms? This seems wrong to me. The massive fortunes of Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, and Jeff Bezos are mostly due to the extremely high value of the companies they started, which are publicly traded.)
Wolff repeatedly brings up Mondragon. It's a Spanish firm composed of worker co-ops. It has an egalitarian pay scale that limits the salary differentials between the highest and lowest paid workers. It is Spain's seventh largest company. Wolff holds up Mondragon as a shining example of private socialism. So it's a bit awkward for him to claim that it's not possible (or that it's really hard) for private worker co-ops to establish themselves. Mondragon is an existence proof for Wolff's concept. But its existence also undercuts Wolff's (and Burgis's) claim that worker co-ops can't establish themselves in a market society. It would seem they face no hard barriers in getting started. They're just not as attractive to workers as Wolff and Burgis would like.
I would also point to the Israeli kibbutzim as an example of private socialism, which gradually declined for all the obvious reasons. They began their existence with a very pure socialist ideology. The children were raised communally, with other children but separate from their parents. (This later changed. People like to raise their own children, and it turns out it's really hard to "reform" biology.) If you left the kibbutz, you forfeited everything you owned. (This also changed over the years, and deserters could leave with some kind of "savings" they'd built up over time.) Eventually, they began allowing members to work in the Israeli marketplace outside the kibbutz; they would contribute their earnings rather than their labor. In other words, they rediscovered comparative advantage. Why force a brilliant programmer to be a farmer when you could let him bring in a programmer's salary and use it to upgrade your farming capital? (And for that matter, why should you deny Israeli society the contributions of this brilliant mind?) They eventually brought in outside vendors and management expertise to run their commissaries and professionalize their production. The kibbutzim were apparently stingy with the purse strings with respect to retiree pensions. (Understandably, they thought the mutual aid intrinsic to the kibbutz way of life made a generous pension payment redundant.) They were forced by the Israeli government to offer more generous pensions to their retirees. As a percent of the population, kibbutz membership declined from a maximum point at around 7% to about 2% by the year 2000. If this were an attractive model for workers, it should have grown instead of shrunk. It should have expanded beyond the borders of Israel, having provided a shining example of what's possible. Instead it gradually became more capitalist as it acceded to the demands of its members, though not fast enough to stem the outward flow of its population. It is a noble (and ongoing!) experiment, but it has some fairly clear implications about the viability of workers co-ops on a grand scale.
I've written this post to talk about Wolff and Burgis's bad prescription. But I want to point out that they and their co-thinkers are mistaken on a profound level. Their conception of the worker as being completely in the saddle, totally under the boot of their corporate overlords, is just mistaken. It ring completely hollow. It makes no logical sense that workers in a competitive labor market could be routinely exploited. Wolff references the tradition of ending a workday with "Happy hour...which is in contrast to all the previous hours." Certainly there are people who are miserable in their jobs. They work unpleasant hours, or they feel underpaid or underappreciated, or they find their work mind-numbingly tedious. This is not my experience, and in fact the vast majority of people I know take some kind of pride in their work and feel a sense of accomplishment for doing their jobs well. There are plenty of people who enter adulthood with a chip still resting firmly on their shoulder, but most mature out of these adolescent feelings of begrudgement. Contra Wolff, it's rare for a person's work life to be so miserable that they're eager to numb their mind with alcohol. And it's unlikely that such a malcontent would be happier if they had a "vote" in their employer's business decisions.
Are workers being systematically underpaid by their employers? This is a standard claim of socialist ideology, but it's quite plainly implausible. Certainly there are individual workers who are underpaid. The talented go-getter who is overlooked for a promotion by their incompetent boss, the young ace who easily does twice the work of their older colleagues (who have racked up seniority pay without actually becoming any more productive), the factory worker who truly has no alternatives open to him (so his employer has monopsony power, in a limited, localized sense). Sure, this happens. But these are random errors, not systematic biases that affect entire industries or classes of people. It's pretty absurd to think that any class of workers is systematically underpaid (or overpaid for that matter). If restaurant workers are bringing home $14/hour in wages + tips, is it remotely plausible that they are actually producing vastly more than that? Say you think they are really producing $20/hour, with their greedy boss simply pocketing the surplus. Wouldn't some restauranteur, with a just slightly lesser thirst for profits, open a restaurant that paid (on average) $15/hour? Such an employer could afford to be choosy and select the best wait staff, possibly even earning excess profits over his stingy competitors. What's missing from socialist griping about "underpaid workers" is any recognition that this market process exists at all. The sad reality may be that those workers are really only producing value commensurate with their low wages, and any attempt to artificially gin up wages is doomed to fail.*****
I think socialists are also missing an explanation of why employers are willing to shell out high salaries for some classes of workers. Why do doctors and senior actuaries earn north of $200k/year? Why can't capitalists keep them under the same boot as the low-skilled wage workers? If your answer has something to do with certain skill sets being scarcer and more in demand, or that these workers add more to their employer's bottom line, you're thinking like an economist. I'd encourage you to do more of this, and do so more consistently.
Would workers benefit from a more "democratic" work place? Is the real gripe not so much the underpayment, but that they are mistreated by their employers? That they would benefit from having a say in management decisions? I seriously doubt this. Think of the most incompetent co-worker you've ever had, and now imagine giving that person the same decision making authority as your boss (or the CEO for that matter). Way back in 2012, Tyler Cowen gave an interesting response to this "liberate the workplace" screed at Crooked Timber:
When I was seventeen, I had a job in the produce department of a grocery store. They made me wear a tie. They did not let me curse. Even if there was no work at the moment, I could not appear to be obviously slacking for fear of setting a bad example. They had the right to search me, including for illegal drugs. I suspect that “contract indeterminacies” gave them other rights too.
The company kept each and every one of its promises to me and they paid me on time every two weeks. The company also taught me a lot. I honor that company to this day. I also did my best to keep each and every promise to them.
What I did observe was massive employee shirking, rampant drug use including what appeared to be on the job, regular rule-breaking, and a significant level of employee theft, sometimes in cahoots with customers.
I don't think this is entirely atypical. I recall seeing plenty of shenanigan and horseplay when I worked in a less professional job setting. (I don't recall any on the job drug use, but then again I had one co-worker who was never seen again because of a very public DUI.) The problems is not a lack of workplace democracy. The problem is more often a lack of maturity, and a low-wage job is the only chance these people will ever get to learn a proper workplace etiquette. Expanding "workplace democracy" is not the right prescription for these workers.
Some "problems" are really just features of the world that exist under any conceivable system of government. They get unfairly blamed on capitalism, but they would exist to the same extent (or perhaps even greater) under socialism. One recent example stands out. Bryan Caplan was recently on an NPR panel discussing socialism. At one point the panel takes questions from callers. One of them was a nurse who was not happy with her job. She had unpleasant hours and felt a lack of control over her life. Caplan wisely counseled that she should seek alternative employment. He pointed out that there are nursing jobs with more regular hours (say, a nurse in a doctor's practice, as opposed to a nurse in an emergency room). The socialists on the panel insisted that this would not do, that the nurse needed to organize and agitate for social change. My reaction was, Wait a minute, doesn't someone have to be an emergency room nurse? "Unpleasant work hours" are not some mean trick that a cruel employer is playing on its nursing staff. People get sick or injured in the middle of the night, and they need someone to tend to them. Suppose this nurse "successfully" agitates for change through political organization, what does success actually look like? Maybe she gets the cushy day job and someone else gets stuck with unpleasant hours. It's not at all clear that there would be a net reduction in the number of unpleasant night shifts or disrupted sleep patterns resulting in frazzled workers. (If there were "success" along this dimension, it would necessarily mean less care for sick and injured people during late hours, so more suffering and almost certainly more death.) I'm curious what fans of worker ownership think about these kinds of unpleasant jobs. They would still need to be done. Someone needs to haul garbage, or repair the pipes that carry shit out of your house, or spend long hours staring at computer code that's not working. At least under capitalism, there is a compensating differential for doing unpleasant work. If you can sustain unpleasant night shifts, boring hours of study, or dirty work, you will (all else equal) earn more than someone who can't. Would a worker co-op vote for such compensating differentials to make sure the unpleasant work gets done? Or would they just gridlock on who does the dirty work and therefore leave it unfinished? Would cliques form among the workers (crystalizing around the more senior workers or those with superficial charisma) and conspire to give all the dirty work to their least favored co-workers? Might they form a voting block that simply delegates all the perks to themselves and the shit work to their less favored colleagues? I don't think the dark side of office politics goes away under a system of worker ownership of the firm. Quite plausibly, it gets magnified.******
Tyler Cowen's Big Business: A Love Letter to an American Anti-Hero is a useful reference here. Cowen points out that for both consumer and employees, interactions with large businesses are often far more predictable and fair than dealings with, say, friends or family members. Who is more likely to lie? An interviewee for a job, or the employer? Who is more likely to short-change the other? Is it more likely that the interviewee exaggerates his skill-set, or that the employer underpays the worker compared to the promised compensation? What about a spouse? Is a spouse or an employer more likely to make unfulfilled promises? To be psychologically abusive? Cowen also presents some interesting data on when and where people feel most happy. A lot of people feel happier an more empowered at work than at home. You are probably less likely to experience violence at work than in the home (or anywhere else for that matter). Again, there is something deeply broken about the socialist vision of humanity as harmoniously communal and egalitarian in nature. They are simply wrong to depict market institutions as being corrosive to interpersonal relationships.
I'll close out by saying I don't really find "worker co-ops" to be an attractive mode of employment for most purposes. They are a solution in search of a problem. Except in this case the solution is not an innocuous vitamin but the kind of bad medicine that you don't want to take. I don't begrudge anyone their right to form such a co-op. Maybe because they like the communal aspects of working among equals, for a greater social purpose rather than for a profit. If that's what you want, then go for it! I do begrudge people like Burgis and Sunkara who would impose this model on workers against their will. I resent that they would outlaw modes of employment that they don't approve of. The great mass of workers, voting with their feet, have landed on wage and salary employment. We should respect their wishes.
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* Why do you want to get back to work? Maybe you're a civic-minded socialist who wants to contribute to society. Maybe you've absorbed the protestant work ethic of the surrounding society. Maybe the social safety net is designed to encourage unemployed individuals to find work. I do think this is a question that socialists and other advocates of the welfare state need to contend with. How do you make the social safety net soft enough to catch everyone, but not so cushy as to keep people on the dole? You have to acknowledge that there will be cheaters and slackers, and the incentives of the system need to take them into account.
** Maybe it's worth playing with some realistic numbers here. Suppose there's a 10 worker firm, with each worker earning $50,000/year. (This is a typical middle-class salary in the United States, roughly corresponding to a full time job at about $25/hour.) The socialist story is that the capitalist owners are exploiting the workers, which we'll take here to mean they're underpaying them and pocketing the profits. Suppose the workers are getting $20,000/year in the firm's profits (which would otherwise be expropriated by their capitalist overlords). So the firm makes $200,000 in profits a year, let's discount this indefinitely into the future at a 10% interest rate, which comes to $200,000 divided by 0.1 (summing the infinite series), which is $2,000,000. Each worker currently has a $200,000 stake in the firm. Suppose they hired an additional worker who wasn't as productive as the rest of them. Perhaps this extra worker does some basic housekeeping and bookkeeping and generally lightens the load, but doesn't really bring in a the same revenue as the existing workers. (Diminishing marginal returns, anyone? At any rate, we can specify that in this example, the ten workers just want a lighter workload. Isn't that one of the benefits of workers exerting ownership rights? That they can decide to improve their working conditions, say, by dividing hard work among more workers?) Well, each worker's stake in the firm is going from $200k ($2 million divided by ten workers) to $182k ($2 million divided by 11 workers). To hire a new worker in this simplified example, each (or maybe a majority?) of the existing workers needs to be willing to part with $18k. (In other words, in total the firm needs to be willing to part with $180k to hire this new worker.) Maybe in some cases it still makes sense to hire the new worker, because they really do add that much to the company's bottom line (though, again, we can specify realistic examples where this is not the case). But it's obvious that this will create a friction in the labor market. Moreover, this burden will be disproportionately felt by workers with a weaker job history and less impressive skills. Play with the numbers. Feel free to make the $20k figure larger or smaller. (I'm intending this number to be the amount that the capitalists are currently skimming from the exploited worker; the worker would retain this amount if they owned the firm.) Make it smaller, and the "exploitation" story withers away. (As in, what problem is "worker ownership" solving if the workers are already earning their marginal product?) Make it larger, and the worker-owned firms become more reluctant to hire more workers. And this doesn't even get into the issue of "What if we hire a dolt who makes terrible decisions and 'votes' us into bankruptcy?" Maybe the dilution is smaller if the firm is much larger, say 100 or 10,000 workers. So one could try to escape this problem by asserting that firms will be quite large. But don't socialists have soft spot for small, boutique businesses? And anyway, wouldn't workforce expansion decisions for such a firm be made, not at the individual worker level, but in terms of proportions? As in, a 10,000 worker firm isn't saying, "Should we hire Jimmy?" It's saying, "Should we expand our workforce by 10%". In which case, the above calculus still applies. Also note how this system would create job frictions from the standpoint of workers who wish to leave the firm. If one of the ten currently employed workers wants to find work elsewhere, is s/he surrendering their claim to $200k worth of company capital? (I'd think they'd have to, under a true system of "worker ownership of the firm".) I'm always hearing people make the (legitimate) point that American health insurance is a stupid system because it locks people into jobs that they're afraid to leave. Won't a system of mandatory worker ownership make this problem even worse? Won't you have employees languishing in jobs that they no longer want, desperately clutching their share of the firm? And doesn't this mean they would fail to create an opening for someone more eager to have this job? Also consider this: employers would be willing to offer a much higher starting wage if they didn't have to fork over a huge chunk of wealth when they hire someone. Is that the solution here? That wages are lower, but overall income is higher because the workers own capital? I would be very surprised if socialists endorsed such a "wages must fall" solution. Do employers even have a free hand to set wages, or does everyone have to earn the same wage, or be on the exact same schedule given seniority and position? I'd be happy to analyze this under a different set of assumptions than the ones I'm using above.
*** David Friedman makes this point to Burgis in their debate. Friedman says something about workers saving half their income for a few years and buying up capital. Burgis scoffs that workers today are barely treading water, so how could you ask them to save more? Friedman points out that historically workers have subsisted on far less, so there must be some excess consumption they could do without. (Burgis, in a particularly stark display of cluelessness, asserts that the massive growth in material living standards has no relevance to their discussion. Nonsense. If you transported some of today's workers to the past, they wouldn't promptly die. They would subsist on a much more modest level of material consumption. If follows, pretty plainly, that there is a surplus amount of consumption that could be converted to savings.) Friedman may have just as well pointed out that workers in other countries are subsisting on less. The option to forego some consumption is clearly available to most American workers. He also points out that people forego consumption in order to invest in their future earnings all the time. That's what people are doing when they go to college. Saving up to buy capital for a co-op would be similar, assuming such a scheme is likely to pay off. The fact that people don't seem keen to start such co-ops, even though the option is available to them, is quite telling.
**** Chobani gave away 10% of its shares to its 2,000 employees. Ten percent may seem paltry compared to what Burgis is proposing, but here's a question. Would the typical worker want a greater share right now? Or would s/he want Chobani to make a public offering, bring in additional capital, and potentially make their shares worth even more? You can argue that they'd rather have more than 10%, but they'd probably want less than 100%, even assuming they are merely trying to advance their own material interests.
***** When someone like me makes this point about market forces operating on wages, someone often lobs the shallow retort that we're dogmatically assuming perfect competition. We're not! You don't have to assume perfect competition to point out that there's a massive, exploitable profit opportunity if employers are systematically, predictably earning $6/hour surplus on all of their workers! Imperfect competition will do quite nicely here. The workers in the example given here should see their wages getting bid up, maybe not all the way to $20/hour, but to $18/hour or so.
****** I had a friend who was really screwed over by the labor union he was part of. He was pretty Marxist in orientation, but I think he saw the tendency of labor unions to favor their more senior members at the expense of new members (to say nothing of non-members, who are screwed over even worse by union policy-making). Is there some tendency in capitalist institutions to dump on the powerless? Sure, perhaps, but these tendencies can be even worse under non-market institutions.
Saturday, July 3, 2021
Two Good Pieces on "Long Covid"
Here is one in Stat News titled Setting the Record Straight: there Is No Covid Heart. The title is a little misleading. They make very clear that there are some rare, severe complications that lead to serious heart problems. But it is far, far less common than some early reports and scare-mongering indicated. The piece pionts out something that I noticed months ago when people were waving around the study of Ohio State University athletes who'd recovered from covid (15% of whom supposedly had heart abnormalities). There was no control group for this study! If you scanned a bunch of random people, you'd find a lot of "abnormalities". So you can't just scan a bunch of non-random people (say, people who'd recovered from covid), detect some abnormalities, and declare that covid is the cause. The Stat News piece points to a study showing a similar prevalence of heart abnormalities in athletes without covid.
Here is one by Stuart Ritchie titled Does Long Covid Really Exist?. Ritchie is known (well known?) for being a debunker of scientific and statistical fallacies. (His recent book is titled Science Fictions: How Fraud, Bias, Negligence, and Hype Undermine the Search for Truth. Just to give you a flavor of what he's known for.) I don't exactly care for Ritchie's tone in this piece. This part, for example:
In rhetorical terms, Long Covid seemed the perfect stick with which to beat the Covid Sceptics — it added extra weight to our case by bolstering the already scary death statistics, and was the perfect comeback to a breezy “let it spread” attitude. So perfect that I hesitated while typing it out. Could it be too good to be true?
It's not totally clear he's doing a mea culpa, that he's acknowledging he shouldn't have been grasping for a club with which to bludgeon the skeptics. And he leaves it as an open question. He does link to the Adam Gaffney piece that I posted about recently:
Still, as the medical scientist Adam Gaffney has argued, it’s likely that some substantial proportion of people reporting Long Covid are actually people who’ve never had the virus. Which might help us understand why the numbers on Long Covid are so weird. Some sources argue that “10-30%” of people who have had a Covid infection go on to experience it — which is itself already quite a range. But look at a UK study released this week (which hasn’t yet been peer-reviewed and is in preprint form). The researchers — some of whom are colleagues of mine — were able to dig into electronic health records from the NHS, and produced a startling figure. Of the 1,199,812 people they found who’d had a positive test for Covid, been hospitalised for Covid or been otherwise diagnosed with Covid, just 3,327 had also reported Long Covid — that’s 0.27%, a different universe from the other numbers.
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This FAQ website by Ritchie and some of his colleagues was set up to "debunk" claims from "covid skeptics." He links to it at the top of his piece. I actually think it reeks of bad faith. See entries like "Claim: Children don't spread the virus." And "Claim: Covid is only a problem for the elderly and vulnerable." See what this website is doing? It's converting a claim about relative risks and propensities into categorical true/false claims. "Children don't spread the virus" isn't absolutely 100% true, in the sense that it's impossible or it never happens. But it's still a reasonable short-hand for guiding policy. Transmission in US schools has been negligible. If we're discussing the policy question of whether to re-open schools, the "dumb skeptic" who categorically denies that children transmit the virus is closer to the truth than the person who insists that this is a huge problem. Also, see the table of infection fatality rate risk by age on this page.
Immediately below this table it says:
These numbers undermine the idea that only the "oldest-old" are at high risk of death from Covid, although of course they are at a substantially higher risk than younger groups (this has the effect of raising the average age of death, obscuring the fact that many younger people still die of the disease).
According to the Office for National Statistics, there had been 10,603 deaths involving Covid-19 among the under 65s in the UK by the week ending 15 January 2021.
Monday, June 7, 2021
Don’t Let Them Retcon the “Not a Lab Leak" Consensus
Something truly bizarre is happening right now. For a year, it was seen as some kind of overwhelming consensus that the SARS-COV-2 virus emerged from nature. The notion that it may have emerged from a lab in Wuhan (that happened to be studying coronaviruses in bats) was seen as some kind of off-the-wall conspiracy theory. Now, all of a sudden, the hypothesis that this emerged from a Wuhan lab is respectable, with even President Biden demanding an investigation. In my opinion, the evidence that it emerged from a lab was quite strong (incredibly suggestive at the very least) very early on. See this episode of the Dark Horse Podcast with Yuri Deigin as guest, from early June of 2020. He lays out the evidence as he saw it at the time, which he wrote up in Medium here. All of this might be wrong, but it's not the kind of thing that can be dismissed out of hand. And it's not the kind of knowledge on which a "scientific consensus" is relevant. The story is too complex, and at the time too new with too many unknown, for "consensus" to even be a coherent concept. (BTW, Yuri Deigin and the host of Dark Horse, Bret Weinstein, are clear that they want to be wrong about this, that they wish it were an accident and not something for which human beings are culpable. One doesn't get the sense that these are shock-jocks seeking attention for attention's sake.)
I'm not going to stand for the great masses of the chattering class pretending that some kind of new evidence emerged. They need to do some kind of soul-searching. It seems to me that they got a major question wrong for over a year, when they were either loudly shouting how certain they were or allowing their colleagues to get away with the same. I want to hear lots of people saying, "I got this one totally wrong." (And they might, in fact, turn out to be correct. If we discover incontrovertible evidence that the virus emerged from nature, they will have been "right," but only in the sense that a stopped clock is sometimes right. They'll still have had no justification whatsoever for their near certainty.) I don't want to just hear, "I showed an uncharacteristic lapse of judgment." I also don't want to hear a facts-only explainer of why a lab leak is plausible without any nod to the false consensus that dominated for over a year. I want to hear, "My epistemology is complete shit. My approach to discovering truth is deeply broken, and you should trust me less in the future." Something really is broken here. A perfectly plausible hypothesis was taken off the table then reinstated as a candidate, all without any of the underlying facts changing. My casual sampling of major media outlets does not look promising. The Washington Post did a "just the facts" timeline of when various facts about the virus emerged. The New York Times published an "explainer" by David Leonhardt. These pieces seem fine in isolation, but there's no contrition. It's weird that they're suddenly putting out pieces that effectively say, "Here is why this was a plausible hypothesis all along" when they have been dismissing it out of hand this whole time. Changing one's mind is always welcome, and it's a sign of a healthy intellectual diet. On the other hand, it's troubling when people rewrite or ignore history to mask that a change has occurred.
There are some people who don't need to re-evaluate their epistemology. If you are extremely well versed in the facts of this story and you thought early on that the facts rule out a lab leak, you're probably on solid ground. You have good reasons for your opinion, even if it turns out to be wrong. If you dismissed the lab leak explanation because evil people like President Trump and other Republicans were favorable to it, then your epistemology is broken and you need to do some serious re-tooling. Those are bad reasons for holding an opinion, if it's all just a performance to set yourself apart from people you don't like. If you dismissed the lab leak explanation because you read somewhere that a bunch of very serious scientists said it wasn't likely, then your epistemology is broken. This shows an unhealthy reliance on "consensus." Consensus is a social reality, not a physical reality. (And in fact we're seeing this social reality shift without the introduction of any new information.) If you can't evaluate the information that the consensus is based on, then you don't really have an informed opinion. Simply repeating that such-and-such a proportion of "experts" agrees with some proposition doesn't contribute anything to the discussion.
Saturday, June 5, 2021
A Failure Mode of Really Smart People
Dim people have an obvious failure mode. They aren't good at taking in or processing information. So they have a lot of wrong beliefs about the world.
Smart people have a less obvious failure mode. They tend to know how smart they are, so they assume that any conclusions they hold are the result of careful reflection. They've applied their big brain with it's impressive horsepower to an issue, so their resulting opinion on it must be well informed. Unfortunately, in most cases no such quiet reflection ever took place, no careful study of the facts, no exegesis of the relevant literature. They just assume they must be right because they're so smart. It's almost a form of moral hazard: they are less careful because they are in some sense more capable of reaching the truth. Call it overconfidence.
I see this all the time. I want to say, "Dude, you're a physicist. We value your big brain because it's good at solving physics problems. You're not a tax policy expert. (Or an expert on employment regulations such as the minimum wage, or an expert on healthcare policy...) The things you're saying about it don't make any sense, you don't have even a tenuous grasp of the relevant economic theory, and you're trying to shoehorn the problem into your existing toolbox (which has impressive methods for solving physics problem, but they just aren't relevant to policy problems, sorry). It's okay, nobody values you for being 'right' about things outside your realm of expertise. We'll come to you when we have a physics problem that needs solved." It's not exactly "stay in your lane," and by the way I hate that phrase and the sentiment it implies. It's more like, "You didn't even bother to check what's happening in this other lane before spouting off."
I also want to slap some sense into these Silicon Valley data scientists and software engineers who have appointed themselves the arbiters of truth. They're taking down or tagging social media content that they have "fact-checked" and found wanting (by their standards). Obviously these people are not qualified to decisively appraise claims about, say, virology or immunology. When there are dueling experts who disagree about what's true, they are likewise not qualified to anoint one side of the dispute the "winner." And yet this is precisely what they are doing. I see it as another example of smart people being overconfident and thinking they have a direct line to cosmic truth.
Sunday, May 23, 2021
My Recent Job Switch
I'm happy to announce that I've taken a new job! Whoo hoo! I'm leaving the company that I began my career with, which I've been with for 13 years. I'll be joining an actuarial consulting firm. It's a step up for me. I wanted to share some scattered observations on the job search.
I applied through a recruitment firm. This was an interesting and (I think) useful experience. The recruiter gets some kind of payoff if they actually deliver a viable candidate to the firm, so they have an incentive to help you get hired. They look over your resume and suggest adjustments. I'm assuming this helped me. When I write a resume, I'm just trying to honestly lay out my job history, relevant projects, skill set, credentials, etc. But the recruiter is "optimizing" for the low attention spans of HR folks and hiring managers who look over dozens of these things. I get the point of "resume optimization". But at the same time I'm thinking, "Do hiring managers really not have the time to vet candidates? Will they really pass over a resume because it doesn't reduce a work history to choppy, easily digestible bullet points?" How fucking shallow is this process? I originally had my work history spelled out in a few short, narrative paragraphs describing notable projects I had done. You know, the kind of thing that's written for a human being with high school level reading comprehension. Making the right hiring decision is probably worth tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars, and yet they can't be bothered to actually read the content of someone's work history? If I can't reduce an important project (one that demonstrates my skillset) to a single sentence, it won't pass the hiring manager's mental bandwidth? (Actually more like a sentence fragment, because one recruiter just told me to "start with the verb" and drop the subject.) The people who interviewed me certainly were not this shallow, so they must be optimizing for someone else. I understand that in many companies the HR department is the first to touch these resumes. The folks who interviewed me were technical people, and the folks in HR are often...not. I'm guessing resume optimization is for the sake of making it past this first round of "blockers," who really will reject a resume for stupid reasons.
(One recruiter suggested I pull out a thesaurus and change up my words. I build predictive models for a living, so my resume repeated the words "built" and "modeled" a lot. Is someone really looking over this resume and getting bored with the repetition? So bored as to not take in the actual content? How does a person with such a short attention span successfully hold a job in corporate America? And why are they in charge of important hiring decisions? Anecdotally, I've heard about managers getting furious with HR because HR's filtering system weeded out a perfectly good candidate, one that the manager knew about from another channel. Clearly there is some kind of broken "candidate filtering" going on in some companies. It could be a misfiring predictive model, or good old fashioned bad judgment.)
Another observation. I actually had two different recruiters look at my resume. One went first; she helped me revise my resume. Then I gave the resume that she and I had landed on to a second recruiter. The second recruiter had a bunch of revisions. I don't know if this second person had a set of exacting standards, or if she just felt a need to change something to make the exercise worthwhile. When I told a friend about the experience, he laughed and said he'd experienced the same. "I've had six sets of eyes on my resume, successful professionals all, and they each proclaim different opinions loudly!" All that said, the work that went into improving my resume is appreciated. I'm sure it improved my chances.
I'll complain about this privately, but I'm not one of these guys with a chip on his shoulder who won't put up with "stupid bullshit." It's just how the game is played, so play the hand you're dealt. Stupid bullshit is just part of the deal, so roll with it.
It really took a long time to work through the process. The whole experience left me feeling like I should always have a prospect "in the pipeline." It took me something like two and a half months from resume submission to receipt of a job offer. Of course, it takes them time to look over your resume, to decide whether to interview you or not, to discuss you after interviewing and share thoughts, and to ultimately give the thumbs up or down. While you're waiting, you feel like it's the most important thing in the world, so why won't they get on with it already? But you have to patiently remind yourself that it's not the most pressing item to the people making the hiring decision.
Applicant: (lying belly-down on bed with legs curled up, looking at phone). "Should I text him? 'Whatcha thinking about? :) Feeling cute, might update my resume tonight.' No, don't send that!"
Hiring Manager: "What's this half-hour blocked off on my calendar for this afternoon? Oh, right, it's to discuss those half-dozen buffoons we interviewed three weeks ago. I guess I'll review my notes, which I absolutely didn't take."
It's rarely the case that the most pressing concern in your life is also someone else's top priority. The experience is a reminder that, if my job were to suddenly disappear, I would be jobless for a span of a few months. At the same time, I feel a sense of freedom. I had felt "locked in" at my previous employer. No other employer within commuting distance would have offered me remotely comparable compensation. (A good problem to have, by the way, even if it does lead to a yearning for novelty now and then.) With Covid forcing everyone to work from home, 2020 opened up a lot of employers who were outside my geographic range. Some of those companies are embracing fully remote employment for the indefinite future.
Something happened when I gave my boss my two week's notice, which I'd witnessed when another colleague left. My boss tried to keep me. He asked if there was anything he could do to change my mind, even asking about my compensation in the hopes that he could match the offer by my new employer. I understand the impulse to do this, but it seemed strange. Does that ever actually work? Suppose you successfully make a counter-offer to someone who just told you he's resigning. Isn't there now a pall over your working relationship? Your boss now knows you aren't totally happy with your job, and that you'd obviously been plotting to leave the company for a span of weeks or months, and that you took concrete steps to do so. Can they go on pretending this was never so? You're still the same person, perhaps still slightly resenting a collection of unaired grievances against your employer. You'd be seen as a flight risk, your future departure being something that the boss needs to hedge against. Your loyalty to the company is obviously now in question. If someone is leaving your organization, the right thing to say is, "I'm happy for you!" Or "What a wonderful opportunity! Best of luck." On the other hand, I know some people will get a job offer as a negotiating tactic, expecting or asking for a counter-offer. Maybe my boss thought this was what I was doing? In that case, it's probably fine to view the employee's job search as entirely transactional, to not get bogged down in all this emotional baggage about questionable loyalty and unseen grievances.
(Have you ever witnessed the awkwardness that arises when a boss is trying to anticipate an older employee's imminent retirement? I've seen it in about three different contexts, but it's always the same. The older employee is slightly resentful about being nudged out the door. S/he wants to keep this very private decision about the exact timing to her/himself. The boss just wants to be able to plan properly, so the company isn't left short-handed and understaffed for important projects. But planning for recruitment and the training of a replacement entail knowing when the replaced employee will leave. I think an employee who nearly takes another job but gets snagged back at the last second is under a similar cloud of uncertainty. The employee would have to give some kind of credible signal that "everything is okay now," that it was all about the now-remedied compensation or a now-delivered promotion.)
Those are my scattered thoughts. If you've been at the same job for a while, I almost recommend looking elsewhere just to see what the market is like. Try to land a job interview, say, every two or three years, even if you're not seriously looking. You may learn a few things from the interview process about possible inadequacies in your skill set (or perhaps quite the contrary!). You may be taken aback by the lag in the decision-making process. Also, it's always good to have a "dry run" interview if you haven't done one in a while. Interviewing with a company that you're not 100% serious about may be a good way to get the jitters out. I feel like I flubbed a couple of my early interviews, and had a few "I won't make that mistake again" moments. It's good to have those out of the way when you're interviewing with a company that you're more serious about.
Monday, April 26, 2021
A Good Piece on "Long Covid"
Here is an excellent piece on "long covid" by Adam Gaffney, who describes himself as a pulmonary and critical care physician. He is remarking on the phenomenon of long-haul outcomes of a prior covid infection. The whole thing is worth reading.
I've put down my thoughts on "long covid" repeatedly on this blog. I've said that this seems like the phenomenon often seen in policy advocacy. There is a technique for inflating the importance of a problem. It goes something like this. An advocate broadly defines the problem to include even minor instances of it, such that one gets the largest, scariest possible total. Then s/he offers the most extreme cases as examples of the problem being quantified (rather than offering, say, a typical example, or a random, representative sampling). I think that's what's going on with claims that long covid is a big deal. Yes, there are individuals with tragic long-haul symptoms. Scarring of the lungs, damage to the heart, and so on. We should supplement data on "death counts" with this information and provide useful context about how well survivors fare. But these severe outcomes just aren't typical. Read the piece. "Long haul" could simply mean someone is feeling "brain fog" for weeks or months after a covid infection. (As far as I know, I haven't had covid. But I've certainly felt "brain fog" in the past 13 months. Could this have anything to do with my regular working life being rearranged?)
Another point of caution is that some of these "long haul" health outcomes might have nothing to do with the prior covid infection. It's really difficult to assign a cause to something, whether it's a society-wide problem like rising crime rates or a personal one like chronic health issues. I've made the analogy before to doing an MRI for back pain. Often the doctor will look at such an image and find some insult, like a bulging disk, and use that to "explain" why the pain is occurring. But doctors find a comparable number of such insults on scans of completely normal people. It's weird to pick out some detail that's in the background of everyone's life and say, "This is the cause of your problem," given that the same condition fails to cause a problem for most individuals. Presumably some of these problems have something to do with people's lives being upended, their careers and futures wracked with uncertainty. It's going to be difficult to tease out whether long-term health outcomes that are caused by covid itself or the intense social isolation and traumatic shift in people's daily routines. (Anecdotally, I've been hearing about people taking up bad habits this past year. "The covid-15" anyone? I suspect we'll see some of this show up in official statistics.)
This seems really important:
First, a cause-and-effect relationship is typically unestablished in these articles. The Times article contending that mild and resolved COVID-19 infections can lead to extreme psychosis months later left out some important context. According to one international study, the incidence of psychotic disorders is around 27 per 100,000 persons per year, which would suggest that in the US, there are tens of thousands of new diagnoses of psychosis every year. In 2020, a solid proportion of those new diagnoses will have occurred in individuals with a prior coronavirus infection. Obviously, although the temporal link will no doubt feel powerfully suggestive to patients and their doctors, this does not establish causality.
Another reason to question the causal link between the virus and some “Long COVID” symptoms stems from the fact that some, and perhaps many labelled with long COVID appear to never have been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus. For instance, in his August Atlantic article, Yong cites a survey of COVID “long-haulers” that found that some two-thirds of these individuals had negative coronavirus antibody tests, which are blood tests that reveal prior infection. Meanwhile, the aforementioned study published on a pre-print server, organized by a group of Long COVID patients named Body Politic that recruited participants from online long COVID support groups, similarly found that some two-thirds of the long-hauler study participants who had undergone serological testing reported negative results.
[Read the piece. He goes on to acknowledge that serology can be negative for people who in fact were infected, but argues that it's implausible that all of these "long-haulers" who tested negative actually had covid.]
This issue is an epistemic nightmare for me. For all I know, the "long covid" alarmists are absolutely correct. But I can't trust anything they're saying. The public health establishment has not been an honest broker of useful information (and that observation predates 2020). It's been marshaling whatever arguments and "evidence" it can find in favor of extreme caution and official government lockdowns. Should I treat "long covid" as a serious concern? Or should I treat it like so many strands of half-cooked spaghetti that have been flung in my face over the past year? Is this narrative being picked up and repeated because of it's inherent plausibility? Or is there a media-government complex that creates a demand for this kind of terror-porn? As Bret Weinstein likes to say, our sense-making apparatus is broken. The tragedy is that we really do need useful and accurate information to navigate a public health emergency like the present one.
