Admissions I Wish People Would Make

“While I have some confidence in my political conclusions, I must admit that there is sufficient doubt and uncertainty about those conclusions, such that it would be irresponsible to actually implement my preferred policies. I acknowledge the lack of consensus among experts who have studied this topic and broad literature of studies coming to opposing conclusions. I recognize that a policy misstep could do harm, for which I would be responsible. Even for a ‘harmless’ but ineffective and expensive project, the enormous public investment with zero offsetting benefit would be on my conscience. I therefore recognize that the responsible course of action is to do nothing.”

-said nobody. Ever. Unfortunately.

Lifting this from an old Facebook post. Several others emerged in the comments. Most are some form of "I acknowledge there is an empirical literature casting doubt on my favorite policy." 

"Individuals acting privately have not, in general, embraced my ideas, even though they have had plenty of opportunities to do so. I recognize that this outcome represents a verdict against those ideas."

"A higher density of guns will tend to deter crime, as rational criminals recognize the larger risk of victimizing a random person. A higher density of guns will also increase the number of irrational shootings, as a more heavily armed population can more easily commit impulsive gun crimes. I propose disarming peaceful gun enthusiasts on my personal hunch that the second effect is larger than the first."

“I personally believe that a large government expenditure, on the order of a trillion dollars, would stimulate the economy and result in a public benefit larger than the expenditure. However, I recognize that many credible critics doubt the Keynesian framework, and many attempts to empirically measure the size of the multiplier have found it to be smaller than one, implying a negative return to government expenditures. I recognize that it would be irresponsible to spend hundreds of billions of dollars of other people’s money based on disputed and discredited economic theories. I also concede that decisions about how to spend the stimulus money will be made by a political process rife with corruption, which will necessarily degrade the value of any stimulus.”

“I acknowledge the vast and credible literature showing that subsidized medicine doesn’t make people any healthier, and plausibly does the opposite. I nonetheless recommend spending hundreds of billions of dollars every year on subsidized medicine, based on my hunch that the studies are all wrong.”